Daily Killings in Mexico Fall Over a Third In Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Official Figures

The average figure of daily killings each month in Mexico has decreased by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to new official statistics. Nevertheless, security experts have cautioned that murder data could fail to point to better countrywide security.

Significant Reduction in Daily Figures

Officials reported an mean of nearly 55 murders a day in the month of November compared with roughly 87 when the President assumed the leadership in September of last year. This information was delivered by the director of the country’s national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that we have seen during these past months is extremely significant,” Sheinbaum stated, explaining that in November the smallest figure of homicides were recorded for any November in the last 10 years.

Recent Context and Official Strategy

Intense drug cartel rivalries, combined with the administration's highly military campaigns to combat the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in the past few years. The rate hit a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s national statistics office.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure over four times greater than that of the United States. However, killings have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 the previous year. The President has linked her public safety plan for an apparently more pronounced drop in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President stated: “We have a plan, there is oversight of the plan, and there is detailed tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The plan is effective. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The central elements of Sheinbaum’s security plan encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Increased collaboration between various departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Limitations

However, public safety researchers cautioned that using homicide numbers to draw a conclusion of improved security was problematic. This is particularly true given the rise in different crimes such as abductions.

“That would be positive information if this was a drop, but I think we must not just look at the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Alright, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's cartels. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

Per the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the same period the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer valid for gauging the reality of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who do not have the resources or the inclination to properly identify and categorize bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly means of daily killings was also an issue because it may mask days when there were especially elevated numbers of killings.

“Relying on the daily mean renders spikes of violent crime less visible,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

An area where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its security strategy is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and this past November for high-impact offenses, according to government data. Over 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Anger

However notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico continues to be grappling with extreme bloodshed, with multiple states in the grip of cartel-driven violence. Last month there was a high-profile killing of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, many thousands of youth protested in Mexico City and throughout the nation to express their frustration at graft and narco-violence.

“The government presents [data] in a manner to construct a picture of safety. Politically it’s extremely effective, socially it’s highly questionable,” the analyst remarked.