Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
