Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.
Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
A number of members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to head off any future leadership challenge.
The party apparatus is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
